Tsunami Warning

Anyone who knows me knows that I love backpacking.  Getting away from it all, and enjoying the beautiful world we live in is something I look forward to every year.  Because of snow in the high country, the hiking season usually starts off with day hikes in May or June, and the first full-fledged backpacking trip isn't until July.  Cold weather kicks in again in September and October, so the backpacking season is short.

Or shall I say, "Was short"?  My friends (also brother-in-law and neighbor) T and Peter and I decided to brave the possible winter weather, and take a backpacking trip to Point Reyes in February.  That's right, the season started in February this year!

We knew there would be rain, but nothing that Bear Grylls wouldn't take in stride.  The meteorologists were right.  We hiked the 6-miles to the campground in some pretty hard rain and heavy wind.  My idea of using a garbage bag for a pack cover failed within minutes due to the wind.  T's ingenious shower curtain/bungee cord idea lasted a little longer, but both of us were adoring Peter's backpack cover within a couple miles of the trailhead.

Once we got to the campground, we tried our great idea to build a shelter with a tarp.  It sure seemed like a good idea, but the wind made this impossible (well, to us anyway - where was Bear Grylls when we needed him?).  Eventually, T decided that since the weather might get worse, it was time to setup his tent.  Peter and I agreed, and we all learned about setting up our tents in the rain.  In the end, with a little toweling off of the interior, it really wasn't bad at all.

An hour after we got our tents set up, the sun came out.  Amazing.  The coastal weather can sure change quickly!  After a superb dinner of barbecued hot dogs and beer, we settled down for the night, and experienced torrential downpours for a few hours.  All three tents did well, and when we awoke to the sunshine, we knew we were right where we wanted to be!

As we embarked on our day-hike/journey to Arched Rock, we met the ranger.  He warned us of a possible 2-3 foot tsunami due to the earthquake in Chile.  He advised staying off the beach between 1:00 and 4:00 in the afternoon.  We sat on the 40-foot bluff and waited…never really seeing anything major, but we were there, during the tsunami.  Point Reyes didn't disappoint again (we saw a whale last fall when we were there).

All-in-all, an amazing trip - getting away from the stresses of work for a couple of days, and hanging out with friends.  We actually enjoyed the weather - even the rain!  What made it even more fantastic was that we did this in February.  I'm already excited about our next trip - to the same location, but with our wives and more friends - in April.  And Peter, T, and I will do whatever it takes to find that elusive Arched Rock that we never did find in February.

Forgive the Big Mac?

Forgive the Big Mac?   By David Prekeges

As much as I love McDonalds, and as much as the Big Mac has added to my waistline, this article is about a different Big Mac - Mark McGwire.  McGwire will be the St. Louis Cardinal's  hitting coach this coming year, and for that reason, he decided to come clean on his steroid use during his playing days.  He has also asked for forgiveness for his wrongdoings.

So McGwire used steroids.  Yes, he cheated.  When asked, he refused to tell Congress this.  He would not have been as good had he followed the rules.  What about the other players that did follow the rules?  McGwire's high salary would not have been so high, but instead those dollars would have been distributed to other players.  So his cheating actually cost other players money.  And what about the young AAA player that didn't get a shot in the major leagues because cheating McGwire held that spot?  And what about the AA player that didn't get to AAA because of the domino affect started by McGwire?  McGwire just didn't affect himself - his cheating affected many, many lives.

So is a simple apology, admitting he cheated, enough?  I say no way.  You've affected a lot of lives Big Mac.  You are rich beyond any normal person's dreams because of your cheating.  And that money rightfully belongs to others whom you don't even know.  Give that money back.  All of it.  Donate it to a good cause - maybe drug abuse?  Give your time to help younger players (well, I'll give you credit - you're headed that way as a hitting coach).

So you want forgiveness?  I'm a forgiving person, and yes, I'll accept your apology.  But you have a lot more work to do to make your cheating right with this world.

Skipping Technology for Awhile?

Skipping Technology for Awhile?   by David Prekeges     01/11/10 (that's right - a binary date palindrome)

Ever since my knee surgery a little over four years ago, I have been bicycling for my aerobic exercise.  During this last four years, I've been using technology to monitor everything during my rides, including my distance ridden, heart rate, speed, cadence, etc.  Really, it's amazing stuff.  I mean, I can tell you that if I'm near my aerobic range, and I increase my biking speed by an average of 1mph, then my heart rate will increase by 10 beats-per-minute.  It's not so much that 1-mph makes that big a difference in my heart rate, it's more that I am even spending the time monitoring and analyzing all this data!  To top it off, I used Microsoft Excel's excellent graphing capabilities to capture a lot of data in a single graph.  I've included it at the end of this article with some explanation.

Now normally I'm not big on New Year's Resolutions, and I'll probably still stick with that, in general.  However, I really think technology may be getting in the way with me enjoying biking.  Sure it's nice to monitor all this data, with the goal of trying to optimize my workouts.  But am I missing the joy of riding? If I'm always looking at the bike computer striving to keep my heart rate at a certain level, or ensuring my average speed is high enough, could it be that some of the enjoyment of simply riding is passing me by?  I think it's worth a try.  For the next 4-6 months (see, not a whole year!), I am going to ride without my bike computer.  I won't know how far I've gone.  I won't know how fast I'm going.  I will see if this adds to the fun of riding, or, better yet, makes riding fun again.

The graph (click on it for a larger version).  4-years of information on one graph.  The x-axis is the month.  The left y-axis is my monthly miles.  The right y-axis is my annual miles.  The green line across the entire middle of the graph is my average monthly miles, 281.  The black short bars for each month are the average miles for that particular month (October was my month with the most miles).  The colored bar graphs (per month) are my monthly miles for each month (the color signifies which year).  The colored line graphs show the annual mileage for each year, from 2500 to 3700 miles.  Now that's a lot of information in a single graph!

A Jobless Economic Recovery

A Jobless Economic Recovery?   by David Prekeges

The first decade of this new century is the first decade that we exited with less jobs than when we entered.  That's right, starting 2010 the US had 2 million LESS people employed than at the start of 2000.  The big hurt happened the last two years of the decade, where we lost over 8 million private sector jobs, driving the unemployment rate to double-digits.

I find it interesting that the GDP (Gross Domestic Product - the best measure of the overall product and services output of our country) increased in the third quarter of 2009 by 2.2%.  That was following four consecutive quarters of decline.  Still, for the decade, GDP increased 34% from $9.7T to $13.0T.  A 34% increase, with 2 million less people working!  Clearly, our US workers are more productive exiting the decade as when we entered it.  I believe technology was a major factor in the productivity improvement.

So now that the GDP has turned the corner, and is increasing, by all definitions, the Great Recession (December 2007 through September 2009) is over.  Does this mean we're headed back to full employment anytime soon?  Not even close.

From November 2001 through December 2007, employment grew by a mere 1 million private sector jobs per year.  This growth was 550,000 jobs per year less than the growing number of people in the labor force, putting us at a job deficit when the Great Recession started in December 2007.  That's less than half of the typical expansion periods, where over 2 million jobs were created each year.  This decade of  weak job growth, sandwiched between two recessions (2001 and 2007-9) means we're exiting the decade with 2 million less employed than when we started the decade.  To put this in perspective, in the last two decades of the 1900's, we added over 35 million private sector jobs (19 million in the 90's and 16 million in the 80's).

But the job deficit entering the new decade is really worse than the 2 million lost jobs over the decade.  According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are 1.3 million people added to labor force each year.  In order to accommodate this growing labor force, we need to add about 1 million private sector jobs per year.  So the real deficit could well be over 10 million jobs as we enter this new decade.

Erasing this deficit will require substantial and sustained employment growth.  But even if we were to add 2 million jobs per year, it would take over 10 years to get back to where we were in December of 2007.  And that length of expansion is not only optimistic, it's more than twice as long as any previous expansion in the US (post-WWII was 58 months).

So will we see the national unemployment number drop down to single digits soon?  Not likely.  With companies being very disciplined in their hiring, and the new, more productive worker churning out more than ever before, new jobs are going to be hard to find.  The key, in my opinion, is this:  "What kind of jobs will we need 10, 20, and 30 years from now?"  That's where we, and the government should be focusing.  Stop trying to stimulate the economy in the short-term.  That's only hurting us in the long-term by adding to the deficit, and creating non-sustainable jobs.  Instead we need to encourage and entice small businesses to form, with their innovative ideas.  We need to employ people in jobs that will create lasting value for the country.  These are the kinds of policies that will ultimately lead us back down the road to full employment.